Mathematical Sciences

Title :

Real-time infectious diseases hazard map for India based on transportation networks

Area of research :

Mathematical Sciences, COVID-19 Research, Life Sciences & Biotechnology

Focus area :

Mathematical modelling for COVID-19

Principal Investigator :

Dr MS Santhanam, Professor, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER), Pune

Timeline Start Year :


Contact info :


Executive Summary :

This project aims to create a real-time, stand-alone, infectious diseases hazard map for India based on real-time human mobility patterns, namely, the traffic on the road, train and air transportation networks.


Through extensive numerical simulations it is shown that effective distance is a robust indicator of hazard index. It does not change much in many relevant parts of parameter space, which implies that it is tolerant towards minor errors in modelling system parameters. The effective distance works in a heterogenous system marked by transportation that have different capacities and speeds for carrying infection. Train, road and air data were integrated for this purpose. The parameter regimes in which effective distance does not work is also mapped out. This framework also provides importance of links for carrying infection. Thus, the system can answer questions about which links must be cut to suppress spread of infection. This will help in targeted shutdowns, rather than blanket shutdowns.

Organizations involved