Earth, Atmosphere & Environment Sciences
Title : | Estimating Decadal Predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in a Global Warming Scenario |
Area of research : | Earth, Atmosphere & Environment Sciences |
Principal Investigator : | Prof. Suneet Dwivedi, University Of Allahabad, Uttar Pradesh |
Timeline Start Year : | 2023 |
Timeline End Year : | 2026 |
Contact info : | suneetdwivedi@gmail.com |
Equipments : | Desktop |
Details
Executive Summary : | The decadal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in a warming environment is crucial for agriculture, water resource management, disaster management, and socio-economic growth. However, it is challenging to accurately predict ISMR up to its potential limit due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and the lack of models representing the complex interplay of various time scales and forcings involved. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) serves as a useful tool for this purpose. The proposal aims to identify lesser known and possibly new potential drivers of decadal predictability of ISMR and associated teleconnection pathways by analyzing the DCPP dataset. This exercise is important as using only known teleconnections of ISMR cannot fully explain its predictability up to its potential limit. The ocean circulation and variability have undergone significant changes due to anthropogenic climate change, leading to increased variability on a decadal time scale. The slowly varying oceanic teleconnections of ISMR are evolving in a global warming scenario, and it is unknown how these changes will impact future decadal predictability. The proposal also proposes evaluating DCPP forecasts to investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for changes in teleconnections and their impact on future decadal predictability of ISMR. This will help develop a unified theory of ISMR predictability involving both known and new teleconnections in a global warming scenario. Nonlinear time series analysis techniques will be used to quantify decadal predictability in the context of climate change. Regionalization and evaluation of the DCPP system over the Indian subcontinent will also be explored for improved decadal prediction of ISMR. |
Total Budget (INR): | 22,05,240 |
Organizations involved